![]() ![]() Neither strategy seems like a suitable recipe for wellbeing. ![]() Pessimists, on the other hand, may never leave their houses or send their children to school again. Optimists see themselves as less susceptible to the risk of COVID-19 than others and are therefore less likely to take appropriate precautionary measures. Not only does this lead to bad decision making, but also a failure to take suitable precautions to potential threats. Both optimists and pessimists make decisions based on biased expectations. This may be especially so in the context of coronavirus. In all events, our finding is that a misperception of either sign involves lower wellbeing.Ī majority of the population tend towards optimism, so should they curb their enthusiasm? Our study does suggest realists are the happiest, but this does not necessarily mean that becoming a realist (if such a change was possible) would necessarily boost wellbeing. For pessimists, the depressing effect of expecting doom (dread) may eventually dominate the elation when the worst is avoided.Īn alternative to counteracting emotions is that plans based on inaccurate beliefs are bound to deliver worse outcomes than would rational, realistic beliefs. ![]() For optimists, disappointment may eventually dominate the anticipatory feelings of expecting the best, so happiness starts to fall. Firstly, our results could be the result of counteracting emotions. Instead, we see that being realistic about your future and making sound decisions based on evidence can bring a sense of wellbeing, without having to immerse yourself in relentless positivity.Īs to why these results arise, two mutually inclusive possibilities come to mind. The research may well come as a relief to many people, as it shows you don’t have to spend your days striving to think positively. Other things being equal, overestimating outcomes and underestimating them are both associated with lower wellbeing than getting expectations about right. Our main finding is that it is not just outcomes that matter but also expectations. Better finances are associated with higher wellbeing, so no surprise there. Alongside this, we measured particpants’ finances and their tendency to have over or under estimated them. Wellbeing was measured by self-reported life satisfaction and psychological distress. Which way wellbeing? Shutterstock/Notto Yeez To do this, we tracked 1,601 people over 18 years. In our research, we investigated whether it is optimists, pessimists or realists that have the highest long term wellbeing. Particularly prone to harmful error of this sort are career choices, saving decisions and any choice involving risk and uncertainty. Optimism and pessimism are therefore judgemental biases that make for poor decisions, leading to worse outcomes and lower wellbeing. The point is that to make good decisions, accurate, unbiased information is required. These behavioural views of the merits of an optimistic or pessimistic mindset contrast with the perspective of mainstream economics according to which it is best to have realistic beliefs. Unrealistic optimists, by expecting a lot, are setting themselves up for large doses of destructive disappointment. Getting a pay raise of £5,000 may seem like a loss if you were expecting £10,000. In most cases, whether a gain or a loss is perceived, depends on what was expected. According to their concept of loss aversion, we feel twice as much pain from losses than we experience joy from equal gains.įor example, the pain of an unexpected loss of £5 is twice as strong as the joy of an unexpected gain of £5. This view receives implicit support from Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman and his late colleague, Amos Tversky. Having reckoned what to do in the worst possible circumstances, when better arise, as they may, life becomes child’s play. It is the only view of life in which you can never be disappointed. Pessimism is, in brief, playing the sure game. Despite the fact that expecting the worst can be extremely psychological painful, pessimists are, by their nature, fairly immune to disappointment.Īs the English writer Thomas Hardy noted:
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